In simulated event-driven (crisis) blocking where all corrupt users simultaneously block bridges on day 300, available bridges drop from ~500 to ~150 and thirsty users spike to 25%; maintaining 50 reserve bridges (~10% of deployed stock) halves the thirsty-user count, and 100 reserve bridges nearly eliminates thirstiness among users who had accumulated sufficient credits.
From 2013-wang-rbridge — rBridge: User Reputation based Tor Bridge Distribution with Privacy Preservation
· §4.3.2
· 2013
· Network and Distributed System Security
Implications
Reserve ~10% of the bridge pool as never-assigned backups specifically to absorb coordinated mass-blocking events analogous to crisis-driven shutdowns; release them automatically on a spike in unavailability reports.
Accept that ~10% of recently joined users will still lack bridges after a mass-blocking event because they joined too recently to accumulate replacement credits — design onboarding to front-load credit grants or provide a grace-period bridge.