For complete blockage (>99%) over 10 hours, the adversary requires a swarming ratio of 12.8, translating to 128,000 censors against a single server with 10,000 CoAs. Scaling to a 10-server, 10-interface deployment forces the adversary to operate 106,700 humans in parallel; with a 5-minute CAPTCHA registration and a 12-hour reset cycle, achieving complete blockage within 10 hours requires 1,067 non-stop human operators in the first two hours.

A CAPTCHA-gated registration scheme with sequences of reCAPTCHAs at random intervals and short solve windows limits automated censor deployment. With 5 minutes spent per registration, a human adversary working non-stop for 24 hours can create at most 288 censors; combined with a 12-hour registration reset cycle, this bounds the adversary's censor accumulation rate.

§IV-B defense

A credit-based accounting method dynamically assigns users to larger groups as their trust score accumulates (credit increases by G−1 per unblocked interval), requiring a user's credit to be twice the group's risk before joining. This reduces the total number of CoAs needed while making it costly for censor agents to infiltrate large groups, since they must wait through many clean intervals before the group reaches exploitable size.

§IV-D defense

A proof-of-concept Linux prototype using UMIP (open-source MIPv6) with three routers and five commodity machines (2.4GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 4GB RAM) demonstrated correct CoA rotation every 10 seconds. Signaling overhead was reduced to one-third of standard MIPv6 by eliminating return routability messages; per-packet transmission overhead was 24 bytes (IPsec ESP), identical to the baseline secure-channel cost, yielding zero net overhead attributable to the MTD mechanism.

§IV-E evaluation

The MI-MTD framework uses Mobile IPv6 Care-of Addresses (CoAs) rotated among randomized user groups every shuffling interval. With 1,000,000 users, 5,000 censors, and 10,000 CoAs (swarming ratio φ=0.5), per-interval access probability is 60.88%; over one minute with 10-second shuffling intervals, blocking probability drops to approximately 0.358%, meaning users retain ~99.6% chance of access.

§IV-A defense

The June 2025 Iran shutdown—carried out during the Iran-Israel war beginning ~June 19—did not use BGP route withdrawals as in 2019. Instead, authorities applied service-level restrictions at the national border: DNS poisoning of foreign destinations, protocol whitelisting permitting only pre-approved domestic services, and DPI to block circumvention-tool traffic. Iran's international traffic fell roughly 90% while the country's BGP routes remained advertised, making the shutdown invisible to BGP-based monitoring systems. OONI measurement volume, which totalled 121,333 in June 2025, collapsed to under 200 submissions on June 19-20.

2025-iran-shutdown-measurement Executive Summary / §2 dpidns-poisoningport-blockingip-blocking

Article 19 documents that Iran's National Information Network (NIN / SHOMA) was designed with explicit reference to China's Great Firewall as a model, with institutional mirroring: Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace parallels China's Cyberspace Administration of China, and both governments share a "cyber sovereignty" doctrine used to justify domestic content controls and cross-border technology transfer. The report frames Iran's filtering infrastructure as deliberately architected to replicate GFW capabilities, not as an independently developed system.

2026-article19-tightening-the-net §2, §3 dpisni-blockingdns-poisoningip-blockingbgp-hijackthrottling

Article 19 documents that Iran combines technical filtering with formal coercion of major foreign platforms (including Telegram, Instagram, and WhatsApp) to comply with content removal orders under threat of full blocking. The report notes that Iran's 2022 Women Life Freedom protests accelerated platform blocking when foreign operators refused compliance, demonstrating that the censorship system operates in two modes: coerce-and-allow for compliant platforms, block for non-compliant ones. Domain fronting via these platforms is therefore subject to sudden revocation if political conditions change.

2026-article19-tightening-the-net §6 ip-blockingdns-poisoningthrottling

Brussee measures a systematic pattern of Chinese government websites actively blocking access from outside China (the "reverse Great Firewall"), publishing a CSV dataset of affected domains (available at zenodo.org/records/18172145). The paper frames this outbound geo-blocking as a cybersecurity-motivated practice — Chinese authorities classify foreign access to domestic government infrastructure as an attack surface — distinct from the inbound information control goal of the GFW.

2026-brussee-reverse-great-firewall §3, §5 ip-blockingasn-blackholing

Brussee develops a conceptual framework distinguishing two logics of government geo-blocking: (1) information control (blocking inbound foreign content from domestic users) and (2) data sovereignty / attack-surface reduction (blocking outbound access by foreign actors to domestic systems). Chinese government site blocking of external IPs is motivated primarily by the second logic, creating an asymmetric internet topology where CN citizens cannot reach the outside world, and outside actors cannot probe CN government infrastructure.

2026-brussee-reverse-great-firewall §2, §4 ip-blockingasn-blackholing

ShieldShare demonstrates that an Android application can route all hotspot-client traffic through a VPN tunnel without root access by using a SOCKS5/HTTP/HTTPS proxy layer between the hotspot and the VPN, with per-client traffic accounting and quota management. The system works because Android's native hotspot does not forward VPN routing tables to connected clients; ShieldShare interposes a proxy that handles this. Released as open-source.

2026-edorh-shieldshare §Abstract ip-blocking