Censys scans of IPv4 HTTPS servers in June 2020 found that over 21% responded to a GET / with 400 Bad Request, 11.19% with 403 Forbidden, 8.62% with 404 Not Found, and 2.91% with 401 Unauthorized. These common error-response distributions provide a statistical baseline that HTTPT servers can match to avoid standing out to active probers.

The GFW was observed detecting Shadowsocks servers by sending follow-up active probes after an initial Shadowsocks-sized client message, including permuted replays of the client's message and random-data probes of various sizes up to and exceeding Shadowsocks' unique 50-byte data limit. This defeats shadowsocks-libev's replay cache because the GFW permutes the replayed bytes rather than resending them verbatim.

§2 Background detection

HTTPT prototype performance is comparable to Shadowsocks: median Time-to-First-Byte was 612 ms for Shadowsocks, 844 ms for HTTPT (TLS 1.3, +1 RTT), and 1085 ms for HTTPT (TLS 1.2, +2 RTTs). Bandwidth overhead was approximately 2%: median time to fetch a 100 MB file was 24.65 s for Shadowsocks vs. 25.15 s for HTTPT.

§4.2 evaluation

HTTPT achieves replay-attack immunity by tunneling over TLS, which incorporates bidirectional nonces (client and server randoms) into key agreement so each connection uses unique cryptographic keys. Censors that replay a legitimate client's observed initial bytes are therefore unable to trigger a proxy response, unlike approaches that rely only on application-layer replay caches.

§1.1, §3.3 defense

Frolov et al. (2020) found that over 94% of Internet servers respond with data to at least one popular protocol probe, making probe-resistant proxies that remain entirely silent statistically anomalous. Censors can further fingerprint silent proxies by their unique timeout or data-limit behaviors before connection close (e.g., Lampshade closes immediately after 256 bytes of unrecognized data, or waits exactly 90 seconds before timing out).

§2 Background detection

The September 2025 leak of ~600 GB from Geedge Networks and the MESA Lab (Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences) is the largest known document disclosure from the GFW vendor ecosystem. It establishes a direct lineage: MESA Lab (founded 2012 by Fang Binxing's team, annual contracted revenue >35M RMB by 2016) spun out Geedge Networks in 2018, with MESA alumni filling key engineering roles (e.g. Zheng Chao as CTO). The leak includes ~64 GB of MESA git repositories, ~35 GB of MESA internal documents, ~15 GB of Geedge internal documents, and a ~3 GB Jira export — providing direct access to source code, work logs, and internal communications behind GFW R&D.

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Internal Geedge documents confirm active contracts to deploy GFW-derived censorship and surveillance infrastructure in Myanmar, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, and at least one additional unidentified country under the Belt and Road framework, in addition to domestic deployments in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian. The exported product (the Tiangou Secure Gateway / TSG line) is not a stripped-down export variant — leaked TSG documentation shows DPI, active-probing, ML classifiers, and granular per-region traffic control rules that mirror the domestic GFW capability set.

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InterSecLab frames the Geedge/TSG export program as the commoditization of national firewall capability: rather than each censor state independently developing detection infrastructure, they contract Geedge for a turnkey system incorporating the cumulative R&D of MESA Lab (>10 years, National Science and Technology Progress Award winners). This structural shift means the marginal cost for an autocratic government to acquire GFW-grade censorship is now a procurement decision, not a multi-year engineering program. The report identifies that Geedge's relationship with the MESA Lab gives customer states indirect access to ongoing academic R&D improvements, not just a static product.

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InterSecLab's 76-page analysis of the Geedge/MESA leak (based on nine months of indexing and translating >100,000 documents) characterizes the Tiangou Secure Gateway (TSG) product line as a commercially deployable detection stack that combines deep packet inspection, real-time mobile subscriber monitoring, active probing, ML-based traffic classifiers, and granular per-region rule sets. TSG is not a research prototype — leaked documentation includes deployment timelines and client government interactions for Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and one unnamed country, with censorship rules explicitly tailored to each region.

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Justice for Myanmar documents that Geedge Networks supplied Myanmar's military junta with GFW-derived surveillance and censorship infrastructure under Belt and Road frameworks following the February 2021 coup. The deployed system (Tiangou Secure Gateway / TSG) incorporates the same DPI, active-probing, and ML-classifier capabilities as the domestic Chinese GFW, giving Myanmar one of the most technically capable censorship systems in Southeast Asia.

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The paper proposes modeling HCS undetectability as a simulation-based cryptographic distinguishability problem: if traces produced by the real-world HCS channel are computationally indistinguishable from ideal-world application-channel traces (T_HCS ∼ T_simulator), the HCS achieves provable security against any adversary — passive or active. The simulation paradigm is parametric in adversary capability, meaning a single proof covers the full spectrum from passive SNI monitoring to active DPI.

2025-pereira-position §1, §2 dpitraffic-shapeactive-probing