2026-ferrel-aegis-adversarial-entropy-guided
AEGIS: Adversarial Entropy-Guided Immune System -- Thermodynamic State Space Models for Zero-Day Network Evasion Detection
canonical link → · arxiv: 2604.02149
2026-ferrel-aegis-adversarial-entropy-guided
canonical link → · arxiv: 2604.02149
findings extracted from this paper
Adversarial pre-padding — prepending stochastic byte noise to packets — degrades ET-BERT encrypted traffic classification accuracy from >99% to 25.68%, exposing a structural vulnerability in all payload-byte-dependent detection systems. White-box adversarial attacks (Ayaka AH-MSI) additionally achieve evasion rates exceeding 99.5% against standard continuous-time sequence models via Manifold Shattering, where adversaries align malicious temporal distributions with benign baselines.
AEGIS, a flow-physics-only ML classifier using a Hyperbolic Liquid State Space Model evaluated on a 400GB adversarial corpus including VLESS Reality, GhostBear, and AMOI-morphed traffic, achieves F1-score 0.9952, 99.50% TPR, and 0.2141% FPR at 262.27 µs inference latency on an RTX 4090. The system discards all payload bytes and classifies traffic exclusively on 6-dimensional flow physics: packet size, inter-arrival time, directionality, TCP window size, TCP flags, and payload ratio.
Automated proxy engines (e.g., Xray-core running VLESS Reality in automated mode) generate deterministically rigid inter-arrival time distributions because they cannot synthesize the stochastic variance of human-driven IAT, even when volumetrically anchored to benign distributions ('Fat Middle' anchoring via AMOI). The AEGIS Thermodynamic Variance Detector identifies this rigidity via Shannon Entropy of hidden states across 1,000-packet causal windows, rendering volumetric anchoring mathematically distinguishable from genuine human traffic.
Gaussian noise injection stress testing shows AEGIS maintains F1-scores of 0.9913 at 5% IAT noise and 0.9753 at 10% IAT noise, but degrades to 0.5939 at 15% Gaussian noise — establishing the 'Manifold Shattering Threshold.' The paper asserts that sustaining 15% IAT noise in practice corrupts the adversary's own C2 channel integrity, making this threshold operationally unachievable for high-throughput tunnels.
Flow-physics classifiers face a fundamental 'Human Entropy Horizon': when VLESS Reality multiplexes true human entropy (a human actively browsing web applications), AEGIS achieves a detection rate of only 1.17%, because XTLS wrappers impart near-zero mechanical overhead and the temporal physics remain entirely stochastic. This implies adversaries operating at human interaction speeds can evade flow-based detection, but must abandon automated high-throughput C2 scripts.