A routing-capable warden can enumerate over 90% of decoy-router-deploying ASes for deployments as large as 4,000 ASes using an intersection-based discovery attack: the warden probes many paths, accumulates a set of 'clean' ASes, and prunes candidate paths until a single 'tainted' AS remains. All evaluated wardens (China, Syria, Iran, Australia, France, Venezuela) achieved roughly equal detection success across all deployment sizes.

A warden can fingerprint the specific covert destination a Telex user is visiting by comparing observed latency distributions against a pre-built database of covert-destination latencies. With an intelligently filtered database of only 10 distributions (K-S inter-entry threshold 0.8), the AUC is 0.868, and with approximately 12 collected samples the false positive rate drops below 10%. Larger databases (size 50) degrade to AUC 0.537 due to distribution similarity, but threshold-based filtering restores substantial discriminative power.

§5.3, Figures 7, 9 detection

Containment analysis shows that surrounding China with a 'ring' of decoy routers at AS-hop depth 1 requires covering 161 ASes; depth-2 expands by a factor of more than 23, becoming untenable, while depth-3 is slightly smaller but leaves the majority of the Internet reachable via clean paths. Cutting China off from at least half the Internet would require all 96 of the world's largest ISPs to deploy decoy routers at all exit points simultaneously.

§6, Table 2 evaluation

Under the Cirripede 'random ASes' deployment scenario — where 0.4%–1.0% of ASes deploy decoy routers — routing-capable wardens need only disconnect themselves from 0.85%–3.04% of the Internet to obtain clean (decoy-free) paths to all remaining destinations. Even at 10% Internet-wide deployment, wardens are cut off from only 7%–9% of non-participating ASes on average.

§4.2, Figure 2 detection

A passive timing attack using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on connection latency distributions reliably distinguishes Telex users from honest hosts: K-S scores against the overt destination max out at 0.26, while scores against covert destinations (even those within 10 ms of the Telex station) range from 0.3–1.0 with a median of 0.7 for nearby servers and 1.0 for Alexa top-100 sites. The attack is effective even for clients 50–250 ms from the Telex station, with no K-S score below 0.26 observed across 40 PlanetLab hosts.

§5.1–5.2, Figures 5–8 detection

Article 19 documents that Iran's National Information Network (NIN / SHOMA) was designed with explicit reference to China's Great Firewall as a model, with institutional mirroring: Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace parallels China's Cyberspace Administration of China, and both governments share a "cyber sovereignty" doctrine used to justify domestic content controls and cross-border technology transfer. The report frames Iran's filtering infrastructure as deliberately architected to replicate GFW capabilities, not as an independently developed system.

2026-article19-tightening-the-net §2, §3 dpisni-blockingdns-poisoningip-blockingbgp-hijackthrottling

Re-testing in 2025 on a Pixel 10 Pro XL running Android 16 with October 2025 security updates confirmed that blind in/on-path VPN inference attacks remain fully viable despite CVE-2019-9461, CVE-2019-14899, and CVE-2024-49734 having been formally closed. All three core attack primitives—VPN-assigned internal IP discovery, active connection inference, and TCP reset injection via sequence/acknowledgment window scanning—succeeded across OpenVPN, WireGuard, and NordLynx.

2026-tolley-architectural §5.1–5.3 traffic-shaperst-injectionactive-probing

Six widely deployed VPN and circumvention tools—OpenVPN, WireGuard/NordLynx, NordWhisper, Orbot (Tor on Android), Lantern, and Psiphon—all failed to block internal IP inference, connection-state detection, and TCP reset injection under identical adversarial conditions on fully patched Android 16. Application-layer obfuscation in Lantern and Psiphon did not prevent TCP-layer disruption; Orbot's VPN-style encapsulation of Tor traffic was bypassed via the same tunnel-level side channels.

2026-tolley-architectural §5.2, §5.4–5.5 traffic-shaperst-injectionactive-probing

The paper proposes an Internet Freedom vulnerability registry with five design principles: persistent cross-vendor tracking under shared identifiers (e.g., IF-ARCH-2025-001) as long as a risk remains reproducible; human-centered impact ratings anchored to harm potential for journalists and dissidents rather than CVSS-style exploitability scores; timestamped re-verification hooks with linked PCAPs and minimal reproduction scripts; a structured media interface to counter vendor narrative capture; and open public APIs for integration into risk dashboards so that users of tools like Orbot or Lantern can directly query their configuration's exposure to known metadata-based attacks.

2026-tolley-architectural §6.1–6.5 traffic-shaperst-injectionactive-probing

The September 2025 leak of ~600 GB from Geedge Networks and the MESA Lab (Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences) is the largest known document disclosure from the GFW vendor ecosystem. It establishes a direct lineage: MESA Lab (founded 2012 by Fang Binxing's team, annual contracted revenue >35M RMB by 2016) spun out Geedge Networks in 2018, with MESA alumni filling key engineering roles (e.g. Zheng Chao as CTO). The leak includes ~64 GB of MESA git repositories, ~35 GB of MESA internal documents, ~15 GB of Geedge internal documents, and a ~3 GB Jira export — providing direct access to source code, work logs, and internal communications behind GFW R&D.

2025-geedge-mesa-leak §4 dpiactive-probingml-classifiersni-blockingfully-encrypted-detect

Internal Geedge documents confirm active contracts to deploy GFW-derived censorship and surveillance infrastructure in Myanmar, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, and at least one additional unidentified country under the Belt and Road framework, in addition to domestic deployments in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian. The exported product (the Tiangou Secure Gateway / TSG line) is not a stripped-down export variant — leaked TSG documentation shows DPI, active-probing, ML classifiers, and granular per-region traffic control rules that mirror the domestic GFW capability set.

2025-geedge-mesa-leak §5, §6 dpiactive-probingml-classifiersni-blockingdns-poisoningfully-encrypted-detecttraffic-shape