Adding a DPI apparatus with true positive rate TPR and false positive rate FPR creates three ordered thresholds Fam ≤ Fab ≤ Fmb governing censor strategy: allow all traffic (CTP ≤ Fam), deploy the apparatus (Fam < CTP ≤ Fmb), or block all traffic (CTP > Fmb). The apparatus does not qualitatively change the Nash equilibrium structure; it only shrinks the CTP range the circumventor can sustain, with the ordering Fmb ≥ Fab ≥ Fam holding whenever TPR ≥ FPR.

A censor can mount a zero-collateral-damage flooding attack by injecting fake CRS-protocol-conformant traffic into open channels, inflating the apparent CTP and evicting real circumvention traffic to throttled or sacrificial protocols. If injection is costless the censor can drive real circumvention throughput to zero while keeping all channels nominally open; the attack is equally effective against both throttling and dumping CTP control strategies.

§6.1 detection

In a single-round censorship game the only Nash equilibrium that keeps the channel open requires the circumvention traffic proportion (CTP) satisfy CTP ≤ F, where F = (βant+βbnt)/(αact+αbct+βant+βbnt). In repeated indefinite games a stable equilibrium exists at CTP = Z = (1−p)·CTPmax, where p is the per-round continuation probability, allowing a non-zero proportion of circumvention traffic to flow indefinitely without triggering shutdown.

§4.1–4.2 defense

The optimal multi-protocol CRS traffic allocation distributes circumvention traffic across n cover protocols proportionally to each protocol's non-circumvention traffic volume (CTPi = Li · CTP/(1−CTP)), keeping every individual protocol below the blocking threshold. This makes individual protocol channels independently optimizable, with the sole selection criterion being maximizing cover traffic volume L rather than any other protocol property.

§5.1 defense

Throttling—capping total CRS traffic at Fab and withholding surplus—strictly dominates dumping surplus traffic onto a sacrificial protocol that will subsequently be blocked. Table 2 shows that at CTP = Fab·1.05 the circumventor's relative utility drops to 0.88 of the Fab baseline when dumping, while throttling preserves all open protocols; under a censor flooding attack dumping additionally loses protocol n entirely, making throttling the dominant strategy in both attack and no-attack conditions.

§5.1.3, Table 2 defense

Stage 1 of the detection pipeline uses a lightweight heuristic: restrict analysis to IP addresses in "VPS-dense ASNs," which censors already target for resource-intensive inspection of fully-encrypted traffic. This pre-filter dramatically reduces the search space before applying the more expensive dual-role behavioral analysis. The evaluation was conducted without Stages 1 and 3 due to dataset limitations, meaning the reported 23% recall and 0.18% FPR are conservative lower bounds on the full pipeline's performance.

2026-almutairi-server §2.1, §2.2, §3.4 fully-encrypted-detectdpiml-classifier

Amnesty International's 102-page investigation identifies a multi-vendor surveillance stack deployed in Pakistan: Chinese DPI (Geedge/MESA-derived), Canadian social-media monitoring (Netsweeper), and Emirati commercial spyware (Pegasus and FinFisher). The system enables deep packet inspection, SNI-based filtering, and traffic-shape classification at national scale, including targeted interception of encrypted messaging apps and VPN traffic.

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The September 2025 leak of ~600 GB from Geedge Networks and the MESA Lab (Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences) is the largest known document disclosure from the GFW vendor ecosystem. It establishes a direct lineage: MESA Lab (founded 2012 by Fang Binxing's team, annual contracted revenue >35M RMB by 2016) spun out Geedge Networks in 2018, with MESA alumni filling key engineering roles (e.g. Zheng Chao as CTO). The leak includes ~64 GB of MESA git repositories, ~35 GB of MESA internal documents, ~15 GB of Geedge internal documents, and a ~3 GB Jira export — providing direct access to source code, work logs, and internal communications behind GFW R&D.

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Internal Geedge documents confirm active contracts to deploy GFW-derived censorship and surveillance infrastructure in Myanmar, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, and at least one additional unidentified country under the Belt and Road framework, in addition to domestic deployments in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian. The exported product (the Tiangou Secure Gateway / TSG line) is not a stripped-down export variant — leaked TSG documentation shows DPI, active-probing, ML classifiers, and granular per-region traffic control rules that mirror the domestic GFW capability set.

2025-geedge-mesa-leak §5, §6 dpiactive-probingml-classifiersni-blockingdns-poisoningfully-encrypted-detecttraffic-shape

InterSecLab frames the Geedge/TSG export program as the commoditization of national firewall capability: rather than each censor state independently developing detection infrastructure, they contract Geedge for a turnkey system incorporating the cumulative R&D of MESA Lab (>10 years, National Science and Technology Progress Award winners). This structural shift means the marginal cost for an autocratic government to acquire GFW-grade censorship is now a procurement decision, not a multi-year engineering program. The report identifies that Geedge's relationship with the MESA Lab gives customer states indirect access to ongoing academic R&D improvements, not just a static product.

2025-interseclab-internet-coup §2, §6–§7 (InterSecLab report) dpiactive-probingml-classifier

InterSecLab's 76-page analysis of the Geedge/MESA leak (based on nine months of indexing and translating >100,000 documents) characterizes the Tiangou Secure Gateway (TSG) product line as a commercially deployable detection stack that combines deep packet inspection, real-time mobile subscriber monitoring, active probing, ML-based traffic classifiers, and granular per-region rule sets. TSG is not a research prototype — leaked documentation includes deployment timelines and client government interactions for Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and one unnamed country, with censorship rules explicitly tailored to each region.

2025-interseclab-internet-coup §3–§5 (InterSecLab report) dpiactive-probingml-classifiersni-blockingip-blockingtraffic-shapefully-encrypted-detect