When given a free 18-month subscription to a premium VPN (retail value US$25/month), only 55% of treated Chinese university students activated the tool, and less than 5% of active users regularly browsed blocked foreign news websites. By contrast, 86% activated a placebo free Youku (Netflix-equivalent) account within a week, isolating low demand—not friction—as the barrier.

The GFW's robustness depends principally on suppressed citizen demand for uncensored information, not solely on access barriers. Calibration shows censorship remains stable even if the unencouraged access rate were substantially expanded, because low demand and moderate social transmission prevent information from reaching population-wide tipping points. However, censorship is fragile to demand stimulation: scaling the encouragement intervention to all students would, per the model, inform the entire student population.

§V policy

Acquisition of politically sensitive information produced broad, durable attitude change: access-plus-encouragement moved the median student from the 47th to the 56th percentile across all measured outcome dimensions. Students became more pessimistic about Chinese economic growth (elicited incentive-compatibly), more skeptical of government performance, more likely to plan exit via foreign graduate school, and more likely to report having withdrawn stock-market investments.

§IV, §III.C (Figure 1) evaluation

Peer-to-peer knowledge spillovers were statistically significant but small: a student who actively browsed foreign news and learned of a sensitive event made her dormitory roommate 12.7 percentage points more likely to answer a quiz on that event correctly. Model calibration showed this transmission rate is insufficient to propagate knowledge to the broader student population given the low share of initially informed students.

§IV.B evaluation

Modest financial incentives (US$2.50 per quiz requiring a visit to the NYT Chinese edition) produced a persistent increase in foreign-news browsing: after the 4-month encouragement ended, Group-AE students spent 3.4 min/week more on top foreign news sites than access-only peers (6.7 min/week among active users). By the experiment's end, 23% of newly exposed students paid US$4.50/month to continue uncensored access out of pocket.

§III.B–C, §II.B evaluation

IRBlock discovered that 1.7M of 3.3M blocked apex domains (52%) were attributed to blanket suffix-level blocking rules rather than individual domain listings. Examples include regex patterns targeting all Israeli domains (.il TLD), adult content (.porn), and country-coded suffixes (.com.mx, .my.id). Of 87K Tranco-ranked apex domains analyzed, 37% fell into adult content, with entertainment and gambling following. Approximately 1.27M apex domains were jointly censored by both DNS and HTTP filters, while the two filters maintained operationally independent blocklists for a significant fraction of domains.

2025-tai-irblock §5.3 dns-poisoningip-blockingkeyword-filtering

For Tier 2 apps (IP geo-blocking only), using a VPN with a foreign endpoint was sufficient to restore access. For Tier 1 apps (SIM + IP geo-blocking), the authors confirmed that (1) removing the Indian SIM card and accessing via WiFi, or (2) intercepting HTTP traffic with a MITM proxy to suppress or rewrite the carrier_region=IN parameter, fully bypassed server-side censorship. The authors note that Indian users primarily rely on mobile Internet, making SIM removal impractical as a user-facing solution.

2024-gosain-out §4.3, §5 ip-blockingkeyword-filtering

After India imposed a permanent ban in January 2021, seven of the eight previously SIM-only-blocked apps escalated to dual-factor filtering: they continued extracting carrier_region=IN from the SIM card while simultaneously adding IP geo-blocking. Accessing these apps now requires both a VPN (for source IP masking) and SIM removal or carrier_region parameter suppression; MICO Chat remained the sole app using only SIM-based blocking.

2024-gosain-out §4.3 (Permanent ban subsection), Table 2 ip-blockingkeyword-filtering

Seven of the 220 banned apps (Tier 1, including TikTok, Likee, Kwai, UC Browser, FaceU, Hago, and V-Fly) used the Android TelephonyManager.getSimCountryISO() API to read the primary SIM's country code and embed a carrier_region=IN parameter in HTTP requests, enabling server-side identification and blocking of Indian users regardless of source IP or VPN state. A dual-SIM phone with an Indian SIM in the secondary slot only (primary empty or non-Indian) bypassed the check.

2024-gosain-out §4.3 ip-blockingkeyword-filtering

GFWeb tested 1.02 billion domains against the GFW over 20 months and discovered 943,000 pay-level domains blocked by HTTP filters and 55,000 by HTTPS filters — the largest GFW blocklist dataset ever published. The HTTP-to-HTTPS ratio (17:1) confirms that the GFW's HTTPS keyword-based and SNI-based blocking covers far fewer domains than its HTTP host-header blocking, likely because HTTPS blocks carry higher collateral-damage risk.

2024-hoang-gfweb Abstract, §5.1 dpidns-poisoningip-blockingkeyword-filteringsni-blocking

The largest measurement study of Turkmenistan censorship to date tested 15.5 million domains and found more than 122,000 domains censored using separate blocklists for DNS, HTTP, and HTTPS. Reverse-engineering the blocking rules revealed approximately 6,000 over-blocking rules that cause incidental filtering of more than 5.4 million additional domains — a 44x collateral damage ratio relative to intentionally blocked domains.

2023-nourin-measuring §Results dns-poisoningdpikeyword-filteringip-blocking