Modest financial incentives (US$2.50 per quiz requiring a visit to the NYT Chinese edition) produced a persistent increase in foreign-news browsing: after the 4-month encouragement ended, Group-AE students spent 3.4 min/week more on top foreign news sites than access-only peers (6.7 min/week among active users). By the experiment's end, 23% of newly exposed students paid US$4.50/month to continue uncensored access out of pocket.

The GFW's robustness depends principally on suppressed citizen demand for uncensored information, not solely on access barriers. Calibration shows censorship remains stable even if the unencouraged access rate were substantially expanded, because low demand and moderate social transmission prevent information from reaching population-wide tipping points. However, censorship is fragile to demand stimulation: scaling the encouragement intervention to all students would, per the model, inform the entire student population.

§V policy

When given a free 18-month subscription to a premium VPN (retail value US$25/month), only 55% of treated Chinese university students activated the tool, and less than 5% of active users regularly browsed blocked foreign news websites. By contrast, 86% activated a placebo free Youku (Netflix-equivalent) account within a week, isolating low demand—not friction—as the barrier.

§III.A, Table 2 evaluation

Acquisition of politically sensitive information produced broad, durable attitude change: access-plus-encouragement moved the median student from the 47th to the 56th percentile across all measured outcome dimensions. Students became more pessimistic about Chinese economic growth (elicited incentive-compatibly), more skeptical of government performance, more likely to plan exit via foreign graduate school, and more likely to report having withdrawn stock-market investments.

§IV, §III.C (Figure 1) evaluation

Peer-to-peer knowledge spillovers were statistically significant but small: a student who actively browsed foreign news and learned of a sensitive event made her dormitory roommate 12.7 percentage points more likely to answer a quiz on that event correctly. Model calibration showed this transmission rate is insufficient to propagate knowledge to the broader student population given the low share of initially informed students.

§IV.B evaluation

The June 2025 Iran shutdown—carried out during the Iran-Israel war beginning ~June 19—did not use BGP route withdrawals as in 2019. Instead, authorities applied service-level restrictions at the national border: DNS poisoning of foreign destinations, protocol whitelisting permitting only pre-approved domestic services, and DPI to block circumvention-tool traffic. Iran's international traffic fell roughly 90% while the country's BGP routes remained advertised, making the shutdown invisible to BGP-based monitoring systems. OONI measurement volume, which totalled 121,333 in June 2025, collapsed to under 200 submissions on June 19-20.

2025-iran-shutdown-measurement Executive Summary / §2 dpidns-poisoningport-blockingip-blocking

Article 19 documents that Iran's National Information Network (NIN / SHOMA) was designed with explicit reference to China's Great Firewall as a model, with institutional mirroring: Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace parallels China's Cyberspace Administration of China, and both governments share a "cyber sovereignty" doctrine used to justify domestic content controls and cross-border technology transfer. The report frames Iran's filtering infrastructure as deliberately architected to replicate GFW capabilities, not as an independently developed system.

2026-article19-tightening-the-net §2, §3 dpisni-blockingdns-poisoningip-blockingbgp-hijackthrottling

Article 19 documents that Iran combines technical filtering with formal coercion of major foreign platforms (including Telegram, Instagram, and WhatsApp) to comply with content removal orders under threat of full blocking. The report notes that Iran's 2022 Women Life Freedom protests accelerated platform blocking when foreign operators refused compliance, demonstrating that the censorship system operates in two modes: coerce-and-allow for compliant platforms, block for non-compliant ones. Domain fronting via these platforms is therefore subject to sudden revocation if political conditions change.

2026-article19-tightening-the-net §6 ip-blockingdns-poisoningthrottling

Brussee measures a systematic pattern of Chinese government websites actively blocking access from outside China (the "reverse Great Firewall"), publishing a CSV dataset of affected domains (available at zenodo.org/records/18172145). The paper frames this outbound geo-blocking as a cybersecurity-motivated practice — Chinese authorities classify foreign access to domestic government infrastructure as an attack surface — distinct from the inbound information control goal of the GFW.

2026-brussee-reverse-great-firewall §3, §5 ip-blockingasn-blackholing

Brussee develops a conceptual framework distinguishing two logics of government geo-blocking: (1) information control (blocking inbound foreign content from domestic users) and (2) data sovereignty / attack-surface reduction (blocking outbound access by foreign actors to domestic systems). Chinese government site blocking of external IPs is motivated primarily by the second logic, creating an asymmetric internet topology where CN citizens cannot reach the outside world, and outside actors cannot probe CN government infrastructure.

2026-brussee-reverse-great-firewall §2, §4 ip-blockingasn-blackholing

ShieldShare demonstrates that an Android application can route all hotspot-client traffic through a VPN tunnel without root access by using a SOCKS5/HTTP/HTTPS proxy layer between the hotspot and the VPN, with per-client traffic accounting and quota management. The system works because Android's native hotspot does not forward VPN routing tables to connected clients; ShieldShare interposes a proxy that handles this. Released as open-source.

2026-edorh-shieldshare §Abstract ip-blocking